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Leicester City fans look away now as Opta predict the chance of Premier League survival after Arsenal defeat

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Leicester City’s chances of Premier League survival have now been assessed by Opta as the final stretch of the campaign approaches.

When Steve Cooper was sacked and replaced by Ruud van Nistelrooy, there was cautious optimism that Leicester could drag themselves away from danger.

The 48-year-old was seen as an exciting manager taking over at the King Power Stadium, who could combine easy-on-the-eye football with improved results.

Unfortunately, statistics show that Van Nistelrooy is doing worse than the unpopular Cooper at Leicester, with the Dutchman winning just two of his first 13 league matches.

Position Team Played MP Won W Drawn D Lost L For GF Against GA Diff GD Points Pts
16 West HamWest Ham25 7 6 12 29 47 -18 27
17 WolvesWolves25 5 4 16 35 54 -19 19
18 IpswichIpswich25 3 8 14 23 50 -27 17
19 LeicesterLeicester25 4 5 16 25 55 -30 17
20 SouthamptonSouthampton25 2 3 20 19 57 -38 9

Leicester’s latest 2-0 defeat to Arsenal saw them produce an improved display compared to recent weeks but the loss leaves them marooned inside the bottom three, two points adrift of safety.

Leicester City FC v Arsenal FC - Premier League
Photo by Catherine Ivill – AMA/Getty Images

Opta predicts a 91.3% chance of relegation for Leicester City

A mix of goal-scoring woes and a leaky defence have combined to hand Leicester the recipe for disaster as far as their survival hopes are concerned.

Plus, with an eight-point gap emerging between Wolves in 17th and West Ham in 16th, it appears three of the bottom four teams could be relegated from the Premier League.

In their thousands of simulations for the outcome of the league table, Opta have regularly predicted Leicester to finish 19th, and that hasn’t changed following a run of nine defeats in 10 matches.

According to the latest simulation, the Foxes have a 91.3% chance of suffering relegation back to the Championship and are most likely to finish in 19th (49.3%).

Team17th18th19th20th
Wolves60.7%15.9%3.8%0.1%
Ipswich Town11.7%44%41.5%2.3%
Leicester City8.1%38%49.3%4%
Southampton0.1%1%5.3%93.6%
Figures via Opta

The above table reveals the probability of Leicester finishing in each of the four bottom positions, with Southampton of course the most likely to suffer the drop.

Leicester City’s next five fixtures

There are no easy games in the top-flight, but Van Nistelrooy’s men are set to embark on a horrid run of matches that could make or break their season.

First up Leicester host Brentford on Friday night and then travel to West Ham United the following week before playing Manchester United, Chelsea and Manchester City.

  • Premier League
    • LeicesterLeicester

      BrentfordBrentford

  • Premier League
    • West HamWest Ham

      LeicesterLeicester

  • Premier League
    • ChelseaChelsea

      LeicesterLeicester

  • Premier League
    • LeicesterLeicester

      Man UtdManchester United

  • Premier League
    • Man CityManchester City

      LeicesterLeicester

Admittedly, the Man United is arguably the easiest of the last three but they’ve lost each of the three meetings with them this term, including the controversial FA Cup tie.

Realistically, Leicester could come away from the next five games with zero points to show for it but many will feel one or two wins are needed to keep them in touching distance of survival.

Currently, though, even them taking a point looks unlikely as relegation stares them straight in the face.