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Leicester City’s survival chances now rated as Opta forecast final Premier League table

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Opta have now rated Leicester City’s chances of surviving in the Premier League during the latest international break.

Leicester City’s aim in the 2024/25 campaign was always Premier League survival, with most supporters praying for at least a 17th-place finish come May.

The Foxes, despite enduring a fourth-match loss streak, are currently in 15th place, three points above Crystal Palace in 18th.

Position Team Played MP Won W Drawn D Lost L For GF Against GA Diff GD Points Pts
13 Man UtdManchester United11 4 3 4 12 12 0 15
14 West HamWest Ham11 3 3 5 13 19 -6 12
15 LeicesterLeicester11 2 4 5 14 21 -7 10
16 EvertonEverton11 2 4 5 10 17 -7 10

It’s a position many would have taken in November but that hasn’t stopped calls for the managers head, with the fans wanting Steve Cooper sacked after the loss to Man United.

Supporters are visibly fed up with Cooper’s style, as it’s currently seeing them show little threat in attack while leaking goals for fun in defence.

Opta predicts Leicester City to suffer relegation to the Championship

Leicester fans aren’t confident that Cooper can keep them in the top flight, and that is an assessment previously shared by Opta, who tipped the Foxes to finish in 19th.

That was a prediction made at the end of September when they were winless in the Premier League and locked on three points with Crystal Palace and Ipswich Town.

Now the season has reached its third international break, Opta Analysts supercomputer has run through another 10,000 simulations while handing Leicester a 46.9% chance of suffering relegation to the Championship.

According to the final league table, the most probable outcome for Cooper’s side is an 18th-place finish. They have a 22.8% chance of finishing in the final relegation spot and it’s a 20.8% probability they end up in 17th.

Realistically, the supercomputer expects Leicester to be in a relegation scrap till the very end and it’s anyone’s guess whether they will survive.

Ipswich Town FC v Leicester City FC - Premier League
Photo by Hannah Fountain – CameraSport via Getty Images

Jamie Vardy holds the key to Leicester surviving

The 3-0 loss to Man United on Saturday was the first time in the Premier League that Leicester haven’t scored in a match, and it was unsurprisingly when Jamie Vardy didn’t feature.

Vardy missed the defeat to United with a back injury and Cooper is waiting to see how serious the problem is.

The 37-year-old has continued to show Leicester where the net is this term, scoring four goals and supplying one assist in 10 top-flight appearances.

His absence was certainly felt on Saturday, as Cooper didn’t have much of an outlet up top while Vardy’s pace and movement would have troubled the Red Devils in behind.

It’s also clear that some of Leicester’s relegation rivals don’t have a clinical goalscorer in their ranks, with Southampton in particular struggling for goals.

That is the edge the Foxes have in attack, and they’ll be hoping the injury to Vardy isn’t serious so he can take his place in the starting XI after the international break.